Patrick Daugherty breaks down the 2023 Bills from every angle, including the passing game, running game and win total.
2022 Stats (rank)
Points per game: 28.4 (2nd)
Total yards per game: 397.6 (2nd)
Plays per game: 64.8 (12th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 37.9 (9th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.2 (2nd)
Rush attempts per game: 26.9 (15th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.06 (16th)
Coaching Staff
Adapting to life after Brian Daboll, the Bills’ 2022 offensive approach could best be described as “Josh Allen.” Still vexed by a backfield identity crisis and lacking a clear No. 2 in the passing game behind Stefon Diggs, the Bills relied on Allen’s singular play-making ability more than ever. It was mostly working until Week 9, when Allen banged his elbow against the Jets. The owner of a 105.6 QB rating and 8.33 YPA coming into that contest, Allen saw those numbers tumble to 88.5 and 6.88 for Weeks 9-18. He did remain a dynamo on the ground both before and after. Allen’s 11 carries inside the five-yard line were second amongst quarterbacks and tied for ninth overall. Beyond Allen, the Bills were aggressive. Their pass rate over expected of six percent ranked third behind Kansas City and Cincinnati, while Ben Baldwin charted their fourth down decision-making as third best in the league. The Bills were dead last in running back rush attempts, with their 291 making them the only team to give their backs fewer than 300 carries. Not even a 17th game would have gotten them out of 32nd place.
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Passing Game
QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley
WR: Stefon Diggs, Deonte Harty
WR: Gabe Davis. Trent Sherfield
WR: Khalil Shakir
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox
It’s pretty simple: Where Josh Allen goes, the Bills go. The cavalry did not arrive in the draft or free agency, leaving the offense squarely on Allen’s shoulders. Thankfully for the team, Allen’s elbow issue did not require surgery. At least we think that’s a good thing. It could end up that Allen’s “partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and associated tendon and muscle injuries” might have been better off going under the knife. For now, we’ll assume Allen will be back in rifle form through the air.
On the ground, the Bills have said they want to dial back Allen’s rush attempts, but it’s hard to take that claim at face value. Allen’s eight carries per game last season were a new career high, and they were not a luxury. They were a necessity in an offense running low on ideas in the passing game. Even were Allen’s raw rush attempts to be dialed back, there is almost zero chance the Bills will throttle off his legs in the red zone. Allen has scored at least six rushing touchdowns in all five of his NFL campaigns.
Back in the air, no one remains more important than Stefon Diggs. Diggs’ 2022 was the second most productive campaign of his increasingly-illustrious career. The Bills only played 16 games and his 1,429 receiving yards still placed fifth in the NFL. Had he played another contest and reached his season average of 89 yards, he would have jumped to third, behind Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. His yards per route run was an elite 2.49, and a marked increase on his disappointing 2021 number of 1.91. It was extra impressive in the context of the rest of the Bills’ receiver corps failing to threaten opposing defenses.
Which brings us back to 2023. Gabe Davis is still the No. 2, but we now know it is a role for which he is miscast. Although Davis’s Week 1 ankle injury cast a long shadow over his 2022 production, it’s not a sufficient explanation for him commanding fewer than 100 targets in 15 games. Next Gen Stats charted supposed deep threat Davis as averaging only 2.8 yards of separation, placing him in the bottom third of the league and behind names like Nico Collins and Trent Sherfield. He was spotted an average of just 5.4 yards of cushion, a screaming lack of respect from opposing corners. His 1.43 yards per route run placed 56th amongst wideouts. Davis barely even contributed big plays. His 11 receptions of 20-plus yards were tied for 30th. Failing to provide his signature attribute and not expanding his skill-set, Davis was a barely-there WR3 by average PPR points. With first-rounder Dalton Kincaid now on the scene to battle for targets, low-end WR3 would be a good fantasy outcome for Davis in 2023.
Kincaid arrives as a Day 1 mystery. Something of a one-year wonder in the PAC-12 — you could probably argue it up to two-year wonder — a back injury prevented Kincaid from testing during the pre-draft process. The Bills’ spring comments have hinted at confusion with how to deploy the player who profiles as, at worst, their No. 3 passing-game option. ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg has reported Kincaid will be employed “more like a wide receiver,” while OC Ken Dorsey has said his role is to be determined. “We’re nowhere close to knowing what the big picture is going to be because we have to learn him and he has to learn us,” were Dorsey’s exact words. Not exactly what you want to hear with a first-round pick. Although he is being drafted as a borderline TE1 in summer best ball drafts, Kincaid’s biggest fantasy impact could be his kneecapping of Dawson Knox‘s production. Top 12 returns are very aspirational for his black box project at one of the NFL’s steepest learning curve positions.
The party is over for Knox. Even with the Bills facing an acute targets need in 2022, Knox commanded only 65 of them in 15 games. That was down on his 2021 total of 71, which also came in 15 appearances. His red zone targets declined from 20 to nine. That could be an area where Knox’s role actually grows in 2023 — why would you not make this guy a red zone specialist? — but that is neither a hope nor a prayer in fantasy. Knox is now a mere matchup-based TE2 streamer.
Behind Davis and the tight ends is a grim scene, one apparently led by second-year fifth-rounder Khalil Shakir. The No. 148 overall pick of last year’s draft did get on the field for 20 targets and 10 receptions. Although Trent Sherfield is also in the picture, Shakir appears likely to default into No. 3/slot status. (At least when Kincaid isn’t operating as the “big slot.”) The possessor of 4.43 speed with a nice YAC pedigree from his time at Boise State, Shakir deserves some sleeper shine.
Running Game
RB: Damien Harris, James Cook, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray
OL (L-R): Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown
The Bills predictably let Devin Singletary walk in free agency after giving up on Zack Moss at last year’s trade deadline, but the committee obsession remains. James Cook flashed upside both between the tackles and on third down as a rookie, but the Bills have paired him with early-down free agent addition Damien Harris.
We’ll begin with Cook, who was extremely explosive on his limited 2022 handles. A whopping 48.6 percent of his production came on carries of 15-plus yards. Excellent, though emblematic of a boom/bust rushing style. Cook’s 3.02 average yards after contact were a pedestrian 27th amongst qualifying backs in Pro Football Focus’ database. Billed as a pass-catching threat, Cook averaged a solid 8.6 yards per reception and 1.43 yards per route run. Neither mark was elite, but they were produced on small sample sizes. Cook has ample room to grow both on the ground and through the air.
Harris will be a major impediment on early downs. His basher reputation precedes him, and the Bills spoke openly of wanting a “heavier” back to pair with the 190-pound Cook. 213-pound Harris is just two years removed from handling 45 red-zone carries, which was sixth in the league in 2021. That number crashed in 2022 as Harris battled injury and Rhamondre Stevenson seized command of the Patriots’ backfield. Never known for his efficiency, Harris could take a backseat to Cook between the 20s, but we would suspect he will be a point of emphasis on early downs and near the goal line, capping Cook’s overall upside. Cook should be treated as an upside FLEX with Harris checking in as a touchdown-dependent RB3, one who will lose scoring opportunities to his quarterback.
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Win Total
The Bills’ total is generally established at 10.5. That’s a number Sean McDermott‘s club has breezed past each of the past three seasons, but it is easy to argue we have already reached Peak Bills. Dealing with a largely fixed roster situation thanks to cap restrictions and a lack of draft capital, the front office couldn’t do much to address its offensive line and receiver deficiencies, though Kincaid and LG Connor McGovern will help. While it is tempting to go negative after last season’s poor finish, this is still a team that posted 2022’s second best point differential, and in only 16 games, no less. Allen is healthier. The club is undoubtedly hungrier after tasting such bitter disappointment. Even in an improved AFC East, it is difficult to envision Allen and company not going at least 11-6.