2023 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview

Zachary Krueger previews the fantasy outlooks of Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and the rest of the Baltimore Ravens.

2022 Stats (Rank)

Points per game: 20.6 (19th)
Total yards per game: 338.8 (16th)
Plays per game: 61.9 (19th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 30.9 (28th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.02 (21st)
Rush attempts per game: 30.9 (7th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.03 (2nd)

Coaching Staff

The Ravens and former offensive coordinator Greg Roman spent four seasons together building a rushing juggernaut. Brought in ahead of the 2019 season, Roman’s history of success with running quarterbacks was exactly what the Ravens needed to usher in the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore officially. Jackson’s first season as a starter saw him throw for 3,127-36-6 while rushing for 1,206 yards (the most ever for a quarterback) and another seven scores. The Ravens posted a 14-2 record that season, with Jackson winning league MVP, but Roman’s ways grew stale after that season. The next three seasons featured the same old offensive schemes, a run-heavy approach, and offensive calls so familiar that opposing defenses knew what was coming before the snap.

Fortunately, Jackson’s high-end athleticism and playmaking abilities kept the Ravens’ offense on schedule during those final three years, as the team went 26-13 in games Jackson started. Still, a change was in order after Roman and the offense failed to evolve in 2022.

Enter offensive coordinator Todd Monken. A far cry from the run-oriented Roman, Monken has four years of NFL experience as an offensive coordinator and has led pass-heavy attacks in each of those four seasons.

It’s unlikely the Ravens will throw as much as the Buccaneers did when Monken and Jameis Winston were leading full-on aerial assaults down south (2016-2018), but make no mistake about it, an uptick in pass attempts is in store. Jackson and the Ravens have already suggested as much on the record, and Jackson is also expected to take more command at the line in the pre-snap phase.

While Jackson will still have plenty of opportunities to use his legs, the signing of Monken and other offseason acquisitions suggest the Ravens are ready to enter the AFC arms race in 2023.

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Passing Game

QB: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Josh Johnson, Anthony Brown
WR: Odell Beckham Jr., Devin Duvernay
WR: Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor
WR: Zay Flowers, James Proche
TE: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Jackson shocked every Twitter contract/agent expert in May when he and the Ravens agreed to a five-year, $260 million contract extension that ended one of the offseason’s most documented stalemates. His $185 million in guaranteed money marked the second-most in NFL history behind only Deshaun Watson and will keep him in Baltimore through the 2027 season.

Even with Monken now on the staff, Jackson leading the league in passing yards isn’t happening, but he should be more than capable of flourishing in this new system. His elite rushing upside allows him to bail himself out of situations other quarterbacks must throw themselves out of or risk taking a sack, helping to make Jackson’s contributions as a quarterback among the best in the league. Since 2019, he ranks sixth among qualified quarterbacks (min. 500 plays) in adjusted EPA/play (0.186), is 10th in EPA+CPOE composite (0.124), and airs the ball out to the tune of 8.9 air yards per attempt, tying with Josh Allen for the fifth-highest mark in said category.

Far from an elite passer, people are often too quick to discredit Jackson’s abilities to move the ball through the air. Among active quarterbacks over the last two seasons, Jackson’s overall completion percentage of 62.5 percent ranks 24th in the league. However, if we strike Jackson’s deep ball attempts from the record, his completion percentage on all passes that travel less than 20 yards downfield jumps to 76.7 percent -- good for 14th best. His adjusted completion percentage on those same targets sits at 82.1 percent -- ranking ninth among qualified passers.

While I’m not one to casually throw out specific stats to fit a narrative, Jackson’s deep ball attempts have come at a high rate despite him not being very good at completing them. Since 2021, he ranks 16th in total deep ball attempts (113) per Pro Football Focus and has the fourth-highest deep ball rate (deep ball attempts/total attempts = deep ball rate) of any qualified quarterback over that span.

Say what you want about Jackson, but the tired trope of him being “just a running back” is far from the case.

If there was ever a season for Jackson to prove the naysayers wrong, it could be this year. In addition to hiring Monken, the Ravens acquired actual weapons for Jackson to throw to this offseason. At least, that’s the hope.

Baltimore made a splash this offseason when they signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, $18 million deal, far exceeding what many thought he would fetch after missing all of the 2022 season. Entering his age-30 season on a one-year prove-it deal, the last time we saw OBJ, he was leaving the field of Super Bowl LVI with a torn ACL -- the second of his career. Before exiting the game, Beckham had caught two passes for 52 yards and a touchdown. He was also instrumental in the Rams’ run to a championship, posting a 21-288-2 line in four postseason games.

We won’t know the full extent of what Beckham can offer the Ravens until we get into training camp, but he’s familiar with Monken’s offensive system from their time spent in Cleveland and is at least a sure-handed target for Jackson. If healthy, OBJ should provide an immediate threat on the outside.

Beckham will pair with third-year receiver Rashod Bateman, who is in search of his first full season as a pro -- or at least a season where he’s healthy for more than 12 games. Since being drafted by the Ravens in 2021, Bateman has appeared in just 18 games. A hip injury sidelined him for part of his rookie season, while a Lisfranc injury limited him to six games last season. When healthy, Bateman has shown a knack for the big play, averaging a solid 5.0 YAC/REC for his career that is buoyed by the 19.0 YPR he averaged last season.

The sample size for Bateman’s career is small (96 targets, 800 yards), but since entering the league in 2021, he’s seen 38 percent of his yards come after the catch, beating out guys like Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown -- to name a few. Bateman’s versatility remains a question mark, but his talent does not.

The Ravens also added Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers with the No. 22 overall pick in this year’s draft. A productive wide receiver during his college days, Flowers totaled 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns with the Eagles and will likely occupy the slot in three-receiver sets this season.

When Flowers isn’t occupying the slot, you can count on tight end Mark Andrews to be there. Since entering the league in 2018, Andrews has been one of the most heavily utilized tight ends out of the slot and led all tight ends with a 66.3 percent slot rate last season -- a career-high.

Andrews’ 2022 got off to a hot start, as he and Jackson hooked up for 56 receptions for 654 yards and five touchdowns through the first 13 weeks of the season. In the final five games of the regular season, Andrews was a shell of himself with Jackson sidelined, totaling just 17 receptions for 193 scoreless yards.

With Jackson now back, we’d expect Andrews to be an elite fantasy option once again, although his spike weeks could be a bit more scattered with so many receiving options at Jackson’s disposal.

Before closing out the receiving portion of this article, I’d be remiss not to mention Isaiah Likely. A fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina, Likely’s rookie season ended with tremendous success. Despite playing in the shadow of Andrews, Likely finished the season with 36 receptions for 373 yards and three touchdowns.

When Andrews was sidelined for the second half of a Week 8 game against the Buccaneers, Likely emerged to catch six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the overall TE2 on the week with 19.7 fantasy points. And when Andrews was inactive in Week 18 against the Bengals, we saw him step up to secure 8-of-13 targets for 103 yards, all good for season-highs.

We rarely find a one-for-one replacement at the tight end position in fantasy. Especially when we’re looking to replace an elite option such as Andrews. However, Likely’s rookie season offers at least a glimmer of hope for drafters in 2023. While he’s virtually unplayable in redraft leagues as long as Andrews is healthy, his utilization when Andrews was sidelined is enough to suggest he could be an elite fantasy tight end should a similar scenario arise this season. In addition to replicating the gaudy receiving numbers we’ve come to expect from Andrews, Likely also saw 61.7 percent of his snaps come from the slot.

He’s yet another interesting piece of this revamped passing attack to watch as we near training camp and the prime of fantasy draft season.

Running Game

RB: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell
OL (L-R): Ronnie Stanley, Ben Cleveland, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler, Morgan Moses

J.K. Dobbins’ 2022 season was a strange one. The veteran running back returned in Week 3 after missing all of 2021 with a torn ACL/LCL/hamstring/meniscus, only to go on injured reserve after Week 6 when he had surgery to remove scar tissue from his knee surgery.

When he returned in Week 14, Dobbins looked like the rookie we saw in 2020. After totaling 35 carries for 131 yards and one touchdown in his first four games of the season, his 57-397-1 line in his final four games ranked among the most efficient in the league.

Dobbins, who averaged a league-best 6.0 YPC as a rookie in 2020, finished last season with 92 carries for 520 yards and two touchdowns. His 5.7 YPC ranked fourth-best among qualified running backs (10+ carries/gm), while he also ranked second in yards before contact per attempt (2.5) and was ninth in yards after contact per attempt (3.1).

Now in a contract season, Dobbins has much to prove heading into 2023. While he hasn’t done enough to garner a lucrative contract, it’s hard to deny Dobbins’ efficiency when he’s on the field.

Dobbins’ battery mate of the last few seasons, Gus Edwards, returns for his sixth season with the team and is fresh off a season in which he rushed for 87-433-3. Like Dobbins, Edwards also missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL but was solid in the nine games he appeared in last season, averaging 5.0 YPC on the season -- a mark he’s never fallen below in his career.

A true touchdown-dependent back, Edwards has managed just 18 receptions in his career and has just nine top-24 finishes in 52 career games -- the downside of playing in a multi-back committee that includes Lamar Jackson.

For an offense that’s been as run-heavy as Baltimore’s, their running backs’ points per game finishes in PPR leagues have been wildly underwhelming. Here is how their top back has fared on a points-per-game basis over the last four seasons:

The days of Mark Ingram feel like eons ago, but fantasy production has been hard for Ravens running backs to come by. Over the last four years, the Ravens have ranked among the league’s worst at targeting running backs. Their 3.4 running back targets per game ranks dead last in the league, with the next closest team (Los Angeles Rams) targeting their running backs 4.1 times per game.

How this will change with Monken at the helm is anybody’s guess, but we know Buccaneers running backs averaged just 5.5 targets per game from 2016-2018 -- the fourth-fewest targets per game over that span. Jackson’s rushing prowess also impacts running back targets, as I touched on in an article last year.

In addition to Dobbins and Edwards, Justice Hill remains in the fold. Hill, who ran for a career-high 262 yards last season, is little more than a role player at this point in his career. Even when Dobbins and Edwards were sidelined last season, it wasn’t Hill who stepped up to lead the backfield, but rather Kenyan Drake, who is a free agent at the time this article is being written.

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Win Total

Bet MGM Over/Under: 9.5

Pick: Over

The Ravens have gone 45-16 in the regular season in games Lamar Jackson has started. His 73.8 winning percent in the regular season ranks among the best in NFL history, and injury-shortened seasons in 2021 and 2022 likely kept him from two more 10-win seasons. The Ravens barely eked out a 10-7 record last season, but they got there at the end of the day. The AFC North isn’t getting any easier in 2023, as Joe Burrow and the Bengals continue to emerge, Deshaun Watson has returned to full-time football, and Kenny Pickett is in his second season as a pro with the Steelers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see every team in the division flirt with an eight or nine-win season, but I like the Ravens to surpass this number here. In addition to the revamped offense, the Ravens also bring back several key players from last year’s third-ranked defense. With a strength of schedule that ranks 21st in the league, things won’t always come easy for the Ravens, but by now, we know Jackson’s ability to will his team to victory is anything but a fluke.