Lawrence Jackson Jr. looks at the Atlanta Falcons’ 2023 offense and highlights fantasy outlooks for Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London and more.
2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 21.5 (15th)
Total yards per game: 318.6 (24th)
Plays per game: 59.5 (26th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 26.6 (31st)
Drop back EPA per play: 0 (20th)
Rush attempts per game: 32.9 (1st)
Rush EPA per play: 0 (4th)
Coaching Staff
Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith enters his third season in Atlanta after compiling a 7-10 record each year. With Tom Brady retired and the NFC South as wide open as it’s been in recent memory, anything worse than 7-10 would likely have Smith in hot water. In fact, with the roster moves made on both sides of the ball, it’s expected for the team to push for a record above .500 and challenge for a division title. Smith and Falcons’ general manager Terry Fontenot came in with a plan of patience to get the team out of salary cap hell and it seems to be coming to fruition. After (correctly) trading away franchise cornerstones Julio Jones and Matt Ryan in recent seasons, many Falcons fans wondered which direction the team was headed. While Smith’s play calling and game management have come into question, his teams have competed in games and now they look to get over the hump.
Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone enters his third season with the team and adds the quarterback coach tag to his resume. With that, it is expected that Smith will continue to call plays and lean heavily on the run game. For the third straight season, Smith and Fontenot have used a top-10 pick on an offensive weapon. This season it was Bijan Robinson. With Marcus Mariota as the Falcons’ starter in 2022, he attempted 23.1 passes per game. Once Desmond Ridder became the starter in Week 15, he averaged 28.8 passing attempts per game (while completing 63.4% of passes). There is a chance that we’ve not seen the full potential of Smith’s offensive scheme with the Falcons.
One might quickly forget that Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Titans during Ryan Tannehill‘s two most successful seasons:
2019: (12 games) 2,742 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions — QB9 in fantasy (on a points-per-game basis)
2020: (16 games) 3,819 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions — QB9 in fantasy (on a points-per-game basis)
Ridder is the perfect point guard for Smith to get the most out of his elite-level young talent at the skilled positions. The Falcons as a whole, may shock the world.
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Passing Game
QB: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke
WR: Drake London, Frank Darby
WR: Mack Hollins, KhaDarel Hodge
WR: Scott Miller, Penny Hart
TE: Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, Parker Hesse
The Falcons’ second-worst passing offense from 2022 has plenty of question marks heading into 2023 and they start with Ridder. Can he be the guy? Can he be the quarterback that gets the most out of players like Pitts, London and Bijan Robinson? I say yes. While he doesn’t possess any elite traits at this point, Ridder showed that the moment was never too big for him. As mentioned above, the Falcons ramped up the passing volume after he took over as starter and he showed enough to begin this season as QB1. Some feel Taylor Heinicke (a Georgia native) could unseat Ridder due to inefficiency. We’ve seen what Heinicke is and that’s a quality backup, the Falcons would have to be on hard times to turn to him. Ridder’s numbers weren’t flashy in his four starts, but he got better each week and ended his season with a performance completing 19-of-30 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. It should be noted that Ridder has yet to play with Kyle Pitts.
The receiver group is not one to get excited about outside of London. The key thing to remember here is that Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson will be used in that capacity as well. London’s rookie stat line of 72/866/4 was solid given the fact he played most of the season with Marcus Mariota, who made the third-highest percentage of bad throws (22.5%) according to Pro Football Reference. With Desmond Ridder as the starter in 2023, he averaged nine targets, six receptions and 83 yards per game. Mack Hollins turned in his best season as a Raider in 2022 going 57/690/4 and will operate as the team’s WR2. Scott Miller will come in to assume the slot/deep ball role, but neither of these players should be on your fantasy radar unless something were to happen to London.
Pitts will be a major reason why no other receiver outside of London is a factor. Even before his season-ending MCL injury, Pitts was having a season to forget. Going from Matt Ryan to Mariota (see above) was not kind to him. When you add in the fact that Arthur Smith was hell-bent on running the ball, it was a tough year for Pitts. He’ll most definitely improve upon his 2.8 receptions and 35.6 yards per game averages. The team and roster are a lot more stable now, so expect Pitts to hover around or even exceed what he did as a rookie (68/1026/1). Jonnu Smith was brought in to help compliment Pitts, but won’t be a threat to his usage as the latter will be used a lot as a receiver. (Jonnu) Smith once played under (Arthur) Smith as a member of the Titans.
Running Game
RB: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley
OL (L-R): Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary
One thing is for certain that we all know, the Falcons would prefer that the run game is their strong point. No team in the NFL had more rushing attempts (559) than the Falcons in 2022. They are returning the league’s third-best rushing attack (159.9 yards per game) with a new toy. Robinson was picked eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft to make the Falcons a more dynamic offense. He comes in after rushing for 1,580 yards, 18 touchdowns while adding 19 receptions for another 314 yards and two touchdowns in his final season at Texas. Widely regarded as the best back in his class, he’ll bring his smooth-running style, elite skill set, along with his 4.46 speed at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds. Robinson himself has already stated that Arthur Smith will use him all over the formation in different positions. Given the circumstances, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to be a top-three running back in fantasy even as a rookie.
It will be interesting to see how second-year back Tyler Allgeier and 11-year veteran Patterson fit into the mix. As a former fifth-round pick, Allgeier impressed by rushing for 1,035 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie. Patterson chipped in with 695 rushing yards and eight touchdowns (both career highs). While Robinson will lead the team in touches, it’s hard to imagine (at least) Allgeier being a complete non-factor. If the Falcons use Robinson in the slot, someone has to line up in the backfield right? Patterson’s ability to play receiver (especially with the team’s lack of receiving depth) should make him usable, but probably not as useful as he was in prior seasons. Allgeier should be drafted as Robinson’s handcuff.
The offensive line is one of the more undervalued and underrated units in the league. The Falcons signed their best lineman, Chris Lindstrom to a five-year, $105 million deal this past offseason and also re-upped their right tackle Kaleb McGary (three years for $34 million). Rookie second-round pick guard Matthew Bergeron will seemingly fill a leak at the other guard spot that’s been there for the past several seasons. The line rounds out with veteran tackle Jake Matthews and center Drew Dalman who helped anchor the league’s third-best rushing attack in 2022. Look for much of the same this season.
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Win Total
After posting consecutive 7-10 seasons, the Falcons Over/Under is set at 8.5. Kind of high, don’t you think? Adding veterans like Jessie Bates, Calais Campbell, Jeff Okudah and Bud Dupree on defense will have that effect. Put that together with drafting Bijan Robinson, playing in a wide-open (and weak) NFC South and you’ll get the feeling that this Falcons’ team could hit the over. I’m banking on it. The Falcons also will face each team from the AFC South this season which has its own struggles along with the NFC North. I’m picking the Falcons to win their division in 2023.
